Arrowbear Lake, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

707
FXUS66 KSGX 121835
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
1135 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Near normal temperatures expected this weekend. Thunderstorm
chances over the mountains and locally into the deserts each
afternoon through much of the forecast period. Above average high
and low temperatures return early to mid next week. Coastal
flooding will impact beaches Sunday through Tuesday with evening
high tides exceeding 7 feet.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

Low clouds have scattered out of coastal San Diego County, and
will be a bit more stubborn in Orange County, partially clearing
this afternoon. Elsewhere, high clouds are streaming in from the
south as an area of showers crosses over the northern portion of
Baja California. This may bring greater cloud cover across
portions of San Diego County this afternoon and early evening. The
marine layer remains thinner, and will come in later tonight into
the mid morning for coastal areas. This low cloud pattern looks
to continue over the coming days.

The high pressure system that has brought the hotter weather has
moved off to the northeast. This will help bring temperatures
closer to normal, though parts of the mountains and high desert
will be about 5 degrees above average. Models indicate humidity
and PWAT values increasing later today into Sunday as the ridge
moves over the Intermountain West. The hot dry air mass will
struggle some to produce accumulating rainfall on Sunday, so
slight chances are in the forecast for mountain regions into
portions of the high desert. The high pressure system expands and
moves into the northern plains by Monday as a trough offshore
deepens. These two system will create to better funnel this
monsoonal moisture into the desert southwest as PWATs/humidity
peak, bringing the greatest chance for storm activity over the
short term period. The mountains and deserts have the greatest
chances (35-60% chance) to see bouts of heavy rainfall, lightning,
and small hail Monday afternoon and evening. Confidence is still
low on how far west this moisture and instability will move during
this time period, so chances for any storm development west of
the mountains is currently at or below 10 percent.

By Tuesday, models are in fair agreement of the high over the
Great Plains shifting further to the east, displacing some of the
moisture over our region. This will aid in a lower chance (20-35%)
of showers and thunderstorms over the northern mountains and
deserts. Models show the high may retrograde back to the west by
Wednesday into the end of the week, which would provide a greater
storm chance to inland areas.

With the incoming monsoonal moisture and thunderstorm threat,
there will also be higher humidity and hot weather! We all will
start to feel greater humidity from the coast to the deserts by
Sunday, which will last into much of the upcoming week. Along
with this, hotter weather will return by the middle of the week
(Tuesday - Thursday) for many areas that saw it this past week,
with a larger emphasis on valleys west of the mountains. NBM shows
high temperatures well into the 90s east of Interstate 5 in
Orange County and east of Interstate 15 in San Diego County, with
highs near 100-105+ across the Inland Empire. With these
temperatures, humidity, and warmer overnight low temperatures,
HeatRisk will be higher, so please plan ahead!

&&

.AVIATION...
121800Z....Coast/Valleys...Patchy low clouds have completely moved
out with ongoing BKN-OVC high clouds AOA 15kft MSL through Monday.
Low clouds will develop again this evening, but will be extremely
patch with only moderate confidence (45-70%) of a CIG at
KSAN/KCRQ/KSNA overnight. If clouds manage to make it in, bases will
be around 1200-1800ft MSL with impacts likely not occurring until
after 06-08z Mon (potentially as late as 13z Mon for KSNA). Any
inland low clouds will clear out by 16-17z. Otherwise, the high
clouds will prevail.

.Mountains/Deserts...SCT-OVC mid/high clouds AOA 15kft MSL
through Monday and generally unrestricted visibility. There is a
slight chance (10-l5%) of thunderstorms over the mountains this
afternoon, with any storm capable of gusty and erratic winds and low
visibility due to heavy rain.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Friday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Astronomical high tides peaking 7.0-7.5 ft each day today through
Tuesday. High tides combine with a modest south swell (3 ft swell at
13-15 seconds from 190 degrees) to generate surf of 3-5 ft for south-
facing beaches and 2-4 ft elsewhere. This will produce areas of
coastal flooding in low lying areas, boardwalks, beach parking lots,
and beach adjacent streets during evening high tides. Highest tides
each evening will generally occur between 8 and 10 PM. A Beach
Hazards Statement is in effect for Sunday afternoon through Tuesday
evening and contains the details. There will be an increased risk of
rip currents through Wednesday.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for Orange
     County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...APR
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Zuber